SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market

Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses longer market trends.

CONTINUED CORRECTION POSSIBLE

Market Overview

After reaching a new rally high of 2116.48 on Tuesday, SPX declined 33 points before finding support at the 2084 level.  A Friday close of 2099 may indicate that the correction is over.  It is also possible that the bounce is only a mid-phase correction which will be followed by lower prices by the end of the week.  That will depend on how much extension there is to the current bounce.  A move beyond 2110 would suggest that another short-term high is likely before a more extended correction.

All of the action since the 1867 low (8/25) is more than likely the last phase (primary wave V) of the bull market which started in March 2009.  Its completion should therefore be the completion of the bull market.  It is not clear how much more time will be required before the end of the six-year uptrend, but I am sure that the market itself will give us ample warning.

Intermediate Indicators Survey

Last week, the weekly MACD continued to increase its recovery and reached -5.50 with the histogram making a new high of 11.91.  

The weekly SRSI remained at 100 (the top of its range) for the third straight week.  

The NYSI (courtesy of StockCharts.com) has now risen to 508 and is approaching its April high of 570, but the extremely overbought RSI suggests that it is about to roll over.  The MACD has already begun to retrace.

After reaching its top channel line, the 3X P&F chart of the SPX has now started to pull away as it consolidates.  Although much more work is required to complete the topping pattern, this could be the very beginning of that process.