Market Feeds Traders Their Just Dessert

A favorite anadrome: Stressed Spelled Backwards is Desserts.

Last week ended with the market giving stressed out traders their just desserts.

Stressed out traders makes justifiable sense. After all, like the photo above, the banana split looks tempting and delicious. However, after consuming one, the sugar high might make you feel queasy.

Standing at the top of a mountain is empowering as long as you don’t look down. Buying at what could turn out as the top of the market is like eating a banana split after you’ve consumed a carbo-loaded meal. Tum-Tum-Tum-Tum.

Part of trader’s stress relates directly to the Federal Reserve. Their “wait-and-see” about a March rate hike is a bit nerve-wracking.

Most of the stock market rally has occurred on the back of great expectations. The prospect of tax reform, deregulation and government spending are what has driven the market to all-time highs.

Yet, political risks remain in Europe, particularly in France. Brexit has yet to play out. The market still wonders if Trump can deliver?

Is an overextended market with-

A) Several precarious unknowns that

B) Seemingly accepts a rate hike

Investors just dessert?

The Modern Family gathered for its just dessert last week at Frost, A Gelato Shoppe.

Granddad Russell 2000, old enough when diabetes becomes a real threat, ordered a strawberry frozen yogurt. His sugar levels spiked. IWM weakened, yet not enough to put him in shock.

Regional Banks (KRE), the Prodigal Son, felt cocky after the Fed speak. He ordered a hot-fudge caramel sundae figuring the sugar would fuel rather than deplete him. The result? A bit of both. KRE closed up on the week but well inside the topping reversal candle from last Thursday’s sell off.

Sister Semiconductors ordered mango sorbet. The extra weight she gained after making new highs 2 weeks ago encouraged her to watch her figure. SMH basically closed unchanged on the week.

Transportation (IYT) needed extra calories after purging itself earlier last week. Therefore, Trans ordered a pint of Southern Butter Pecan Gelato. Even if only a temporary bloat, it worked. IYT rallied closing just above a critical price inflection point.