ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 190,000.
Analyst Opinion of ADP Employment Situation
This month the rate of ADPs private employment year-over-year growth remained in the tight range seen over the last year.
When the goods sector of the economy is gaining more workers than historically – it is a warning that something is wrong. This is the fourth month in a row of the service sector weakness.
ADP employment has not been a good predictor of BLS non-farm private job growth.
ADP changed their methodology starting with their October 2012 report, and ADP’s real time estimates are currently worse than the BLS.
Per Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics:
The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example. There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.”
Per Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute.
“The labor market continues to grow at a solid pace. Notably, manufacturing added the most jobs the industry has seen all year. As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent.
Jobs growth of 150,000 or more is calculated by Econintersect to the minimum jobs growth to support population growth (see caveats below). The graph below shows ADP employment gains by month.
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