The wheels of the US stock market’s discounting machine are spinning rapidly these days as the crowd continues to price in the risk of slower economic growth. The S&P 500 is off a bit more than 8% for the year so far and is lower by nearly 7% over the past 12 months in total-return terms through yesterday (Jan 25). Formal estimates of GDP are on board with the market’s bias for downsizing expectations.The main debating point at this stage centers on one question: How much deceleration is lurking?

The Capital Spectator’s average estimate via several econometric forecasts sees Q4 GDP advancing at a sluggish 1.4% rate (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down from 2.0% in Q3 (seasonally adjusted annual rate). That’s down a touch from last month’s estimate. Meantime, the current prediction represents the optimistic view in the current climate. Indeed, several forecasts from other sources anticipate an even slower pace for the official Q4 GDP that’s scheduled for release on Friday (Jan. 29) via the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Atlanta Fed’s widely followed GDPNow model expects growth of only 0.7% for Q4. But wait, it gets worse: Wells Fargo’s latest prediction advises that growth will be virtually flat at 0.2% in last year’s final three months.

Economists overall see a firmer pace of Q4 growth: 1.4%, based on the average estimate via The Wall Street Journal’s survey data for this month–a rise that matches The Capital Spectator’s revised projection.

The common theme that unites all the estimates is the assumption that Friday’s Q4 GDP growth will print at a substantially lesser rate vs. the previous quarter. The sharp slide in the US stocks since the new year dawned tells us that Mr. Market’s in full agreement with the decision to manage macro expectations down.

Here’s a visual summary of estimates from various sources:

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