Two Fridays ago (1/15/2016) I highlighted sentiment readings often associated with an oversold equity market. Two days later, Wednesday of this past week, the S&P 500 index bottomed and staged a turnaround, generating its first weekly gain of the year, up 1.4%. A number of the sentiment measures improved with this turnaround, yet two positive return days does not qualify as a new bull market. Below is a table consisting of a number of sentiment indicators comparing readings from two weeks ago to the just concluded week.
From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors
The equity put/call ratio, the Vix and the Vix/10-year Treasury Yield ratio improved. Although improvement was seen in the P/C ratio, the 21-day moving average of the ratio moved higher to .79 versus last week’s average level of .76 as can be seen in the below chart. A sustained move lower in this average is associated with increasing equity prices. With the elevated level of this average, a turn lower is a high probability.
From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors
One recent concern for investors is the recent spike in volatility experienced by the market. A part of the heightened awareness has been the lack downside volatility from 2011 until the August 2015 correction. Since 2011 the VIX index has traded at a lower average level of 15.80 compared to the time period from 1995-2011 when the average was 20.96. As noted in several earlier blog posts, the Vix index is a measure of implied equity volatility. Higher levels in the Vix imply a higher level of market uncertainty or fear.
From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors
In an effort to compare the Vix to economic expectations, one can evaluate the Vix divided by the 10-year Treasury Yield. A number of factors can influence Treasury yields, but the perception is lower yields on longer term Treasuries are reflective of a weaker economic environment. As a result, one would want to see a lower Vix to 10-year ratio. As the table above noted, this ratio has declined over the last week.
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