We’re already a month into New Year and there has been an ample amount of sentiment data to suggest that investors, both retail and institutional, aren’t terribly enthusiastic on the stock market outlook for 2017. Granted that institutional analysts are still bullish, as per usual, but in the round table type opinion polls I’ve seen they’ve apparently lowered their expectations. Everyone seems to be preparing for a somewhat disappointing year based largely on the assumption that after eight years of a bull market, surely another major rally is out of the question.
The decennial rhythm we discussed in an earlier commentary argues against these diminished expectations. Indeed, seventh year of the decade tends to be one of unusual volatility for stock prices. While it’s true crashes, corrections and panics are quite common in the seventh year (e.g. September 1987, October 1997, February/August 2007), the seventh year also sees a pronounced tendency for sustained rallies in the first seven months of the year. Accordingly, 2017 could be a year filled with tremendous opportunity for making money in the stock market – in both directions.
For 2017, the 10-year rhythm equates to 2007. As you recall, 2007 was a momentous year characterized at once by great volatility alternating between great fear and euphoria. It was the year that saw the last major stock market top and also the onset of the credit tsunami which overwhelmed the market the following year. If the decennial pattern holds true, 2017 should witness both a meaningful rally to new all-time highs as well as a decline of potentially major proportions. In short, it could turn out to be a big year for the bulls as well as the bears.
As for the idea that the bull market is getting “long in the tooth” and has therefore exhausted its upside potential, consider that the previous two years could well be characterized as a stealth bear market. The major large cap indices essentially went nowhere in 2015-2016 while the Russell Small Cap Index (RUT) experienced a 25% decline. That’s a bear market by anyone’s definition.
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