By Michelle Jones 

Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to release its next earnings report on Tuesday, and analysts are tweaking their models. Naturally they can’t agree on how many iPhones the company moved during the September quarter. Some firms have trimmed their unit estimates, while others expect upside to theirs. In this article, we’ll look at two firms with iPhone unit estimates on the lower end.

Citi analysts removed Apple from their U.S. Focus List because they like other stocks better. While this isn’t a true downgrade, it’s probably the closest thing to it the company will get as it has been a Wall Street darling for years.

Losing near-term conviction on Apple

Citi analyst Jim Suva and his team added Apple to their U.S. Focus List in late August after their trip to Asia, but they now have higher conviction on other stocks in the space. They remain Buy-rated on the company, however, with a price target of $145 per share. In their report dated Oct. 23, they said they think investors will become more focused on gross margins than iPhone units.

The iPhone 6S cycle faces some difficult comparisons with iPhone 6 sales last year, although that isn’t keeping some firms from forecasting strong growth. The Citi team expects lackluster iPhone sales this year with a return to growth next year with the iPhone 7. As a result, they expect Apple shares to remain volatile in the near term.

Apple sets a first-weekend record

Apple management announced that they sold 13 million iPhones on opening weekend, but the company’s quarter ended after only the first two days of the weekend, which means not all of those 13 million iPhone units will be included in the September quarter results, with the rest being pushed into the December quarter.

Suva and team estimate that 11 million of those 13 million iPhones were sold on Friday and Saturday of opening weekend. As a result, they have trimmed their iPhone units from 48 million to 47 million going into Tuesday’s report. That brings them just under the consensus estimate of 48 million units and at a Street-low level. They took those 1 million units and added them to their December quarter estimate, however.