It is always possible to find evidence to support any market opinion. If you want to find evidence to support a bearish view, you will be able to find it. If you want to find evidence to support a bullish
October 25, 2015
Judging from mall traffic, sinking rent, and rising vacancies, the effort by China to hand off growth from fixed investment to consumer consumption is not going well. Reuters asks Why are Chinese Malls Closing if Consumption is Rising? Rising vacancy rates
Futures-implied probability of a 2015 rate hike in the United States remains below 40%. Some market participants have all but dismissed this possibility as they look at weak global growth as well as soft inflation and inflation expectations in the
Friday was a good day for both Tech and Large Cap indices, with decent gains on modest volume. Small Caps also posted gains, but were unable to break the October consolidation or the declining channel. The relative performance of Russell
Why do you invest in fixed income? When I entered the fixed income business 25 years ago, the most popular answers would have been: To generate income while preserving capital. Or To generate income while matching return of principal to
Judging by October’s rocket launch, the stock market is back to where it should be, i.e. in rally mode. Yee-haw! All it took to keep the party going was another rate cut in China, another “whatever it takes” assurance from Mario
Economy – Additions & Updates Additions – sentiment, manufacturing, leading economic indicators Updates – employment, housing, gdp forecast Asset Allocation – Additions & Updates Additions – none Updates – none Economic Summary Employment – initial jobless claims rose somewhat from a revised 256k
Quantitative Forecast Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum. In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by
At the risk of being boring, there’s not a lot to say about the markets for gold and silver this week (and frankly being on a challenging travel itinerary, flying from Vienna to Sydney to give a keynote at the
I wanted to offer up a simple metaphor for where I think the market is by way of a traffic light. In each of the five charts below: + the green tint represents the level which, should the price drop beneath it,
