The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months improved but “ its growth has slowed in recent months, suggesting that job growth will also slow.” Consider that this projected growth is six months from now.

Econintersect is forecasting a lower jobs growth rate six months from now. Note that the Econintersect Employment Index is not based on employment data.

From the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in April, after decreasing in March. The index now stands at 128.28, up from 126.42 in March. The change represents a 1.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“Despite the April bounce back in the Employment Trends Index, its growth has slowed in recent months, suggesting that job growth will also slow,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “Employers have become more cautious as economic growth remains moderate and profits decline. Looking ahead, we anticipate job growth will remain below 200,000 a month.”

April’s increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from all eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: the Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Job Openings, and the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.

z%20conference%20board%20employ.png

To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the 
Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.