AUD/USD Forecast July 10-14

AUD/USD reversed directions last week and dropped 100 points. The pair closed at 0.7584. It’s a light week, with only three events on the calendar. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

There were no surprises from the RBA, which kept the benchmark rate at 1.50%. Australian Retail Sales softened to 0.6%, but still beat expectations. In the US, the Federal Reserve minutes pointed to division over the timing of the balance sheet reduction and concerns about low inflation.

Updates:

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. The indicator softened to 7 points in May, down from 13 points a month earlier. Will we see a rebound in the June report?

Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Consumer confidence has been dropping, with the indicator posting three straight declines. In June, the indicator dropped to 1.8%, the weakest reading in 2017.

MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. Analysts keep a close look at this indicator, as inflation expectations can turn into actual inflation readings. The indicator softened to 3.6% in June, down from 4.0% a month earlier.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7687 and quickly touched a high of 0.7695. It was all downhill from their, as the pair reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7567, as support held firm at 0.7513 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.7584.

Live chart of AUD/USD:

AUDUSD chart by TradingView

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7938.

0.7835 was the high point in April 2016.

0.7749 has been a resistance line since March.

0.7611 has switched a resistance role after sharp losses by AUD/USD. It is a weak line

0.7513 is an immediate support line.

0.7429 is next.

0.7319 has been a cushion since early May.