The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to post a slight improvement in the December update that’s scheduled for tomorrow (Jan. 22), based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection for -0.13 reflects a modest improvement over the previous month, which indicated US economic activity that’s moderately below the historical trend rate of growth. Only negative values below -0.70 signal an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s average estimate for December as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to reflect an expansion that’s moderately below the historical trend but still above the tipping point that marks the start of a new US recession.

Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections that are used to calculate the average forecast:

VAR-4A: A vector autoregression model that analyzes four economic time series to project the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: the Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend & Momentum Indexes, the Philadelphia Fed US Leading Indicator, and the Philadelphia Fed US Coincident Economic Activity Indicator. VAR analyzes the interdependent relationships of these series with CFNAI through history. The forecasts are run in R with the “vars” package.

VAR-4B: A vector autoregression model that analyzes four economic time series to project the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: US private payrolls, real personal income less current transfer receipts, real personal consumption expenditures, and industrial production. VAR analyzes the interdependent relationships of these series with CFNAI through history. The forecasts are run in R with the “vars”package.