While big banks blame the collapse in Q1 GDP on “residual seasonality” (more on that later), with BofA recently slashing its Q1 estimate from as much as 2.7% to just 0.2%, the reality is that something is not well with the US consumer. The latest proof of this comes from the most recent Bank of America credit and debt card spending data, which reveals that sales were once again down 0.1% yoy.

And unlike on previous occasions, one can’t blame it on gas at the pump, as gasoline prices have increased. Still, on a trailing basis, headline sales have been depressed by less spending at the pump due to lower prices. On a three month moving average, retail sales ex-autos are down 0.2% mom SA while retail sales ex-autos and gasoline are up a more moderate 0.3% mom SA.

The chart below shows the seasonally adjusted retail sales ex-autos measure from the BAC aggregate card data was unchanged SA in March, leaving the 3-month moving average to decline 0.2%. While a part of this weakness owes to a continued decline in gasoline prices. We find that retail sales ex-autos and gasoline was up 0.3% mom SA, which continues to be in a downward trend.

This confirms the downward revision to the Census Bureau data in January which made government data more consistent with the BAC internal data. According to Bank of America, “we therefore also look for only a slight improvement in March Census Bureau sales, in a similar pattern as the BAC internal data” which means that Q1 GDP is weak for a very specific reason: consumer spending remains anemic.

Bank of America then proceeds to look at spending trends for different income groups. It creates a proxy for the two ends of the income distribution using average income by zip codes. After ranking the zip codes by average income, it takes the top 3% of zip codes to capture the high-end consumer and the bottom 3% of zip codes to represent the lower end. BofA finds that the spending among the high-end has outpaced the lower-end consumer post-crisis through early 2014.