Oil prices look like they are waiting around for Christmas to make a decisive move but really, they are just waiting for oil inventories and the Fed. The news seems to suggest overnight that the market is worried about an increase in NON-OPEC production and shale production, but the way things are going on the demand side they may want to focus on that demand instead. The U.S. economy is on fire as we added 228,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate remained at a 17-year low of 4.1%. We also saw upward revisions in the two prior months of figures adding to the oil demand expectations in the overall marketplace. The global economy is growing as well, and oil demand is on an upward trajectory the likes of which we have not seen in decades.

Of course, you still have the OPEC doubters, even though OPEC and NON-OPEC has exceeded their quota as I predicted. There are some once again trying to make a story about Russian reluctance to continue the cuts, they tried this to stir up doubts at the last meeting causing a drop-in price monetarily, but it turned out to be not true. Now they are saying that Russia will push production increase in June.

Listen, we already know that OPEC and NON-OPEC is going to review the decision on output cuts in June. So, the talk that, oh my gosh, the Russian’s may want to raise output in June should be no surprise and not a big deal. I predict that OPEC will have to raise output in June because prices will be flying ad supply won’t be keeping up. There are also some worried about Non-OPEC supply increases, while it is possible as Goldman Sachs suggests that NO-OPEC output could rise by 500,000 barrels a day the demand for NON-Opec oil growth should exceed that.

The Saudis are digging in. Dow Jones reported that Saudi Arabia said it would maintain its overall crude oil supply levels in January 2018 at their recent low levels, in line with the country’s commitments to the OPEC-led supply reduction pact aimed at helping rein in a global supply glut.State oil major Saudi Aramco (SAMR.YY) will keep its exports to the U.S. and Europe steady, while exports to Asia will be cut by more than 100,000 barrels relative to December 2017, the kingdom’s energy ministry said in an e-mailed statement. “This is in line with our continued demonstration of keeping to, and in fact, exceeding our commitments… We hope that by leading by example, our partners from OPEC and non-OPEC will do the same to keep conformity levels above 100% and accelerate the rebalancing of the market,” a ministry spokesperson said in the statement.