The German DAX 30 remains fragile and a soft NFP outcome (less than 190k) may trigger a slide below the January 2016 low of 9253, which, not dissimilar to a medieval trap door, could quickly open for a decline to the August 8 low of 8887.

For the imminent downward trend to end, a break to yesterday’s high of 9628 is needed. If this happens then the DAX 30 may try to reach the January 27 high of 9927 over the next few weeks.

However, bullish traders are probably better off trading the S&P 500 if they are expecting a good NFP report as its stance is already bullish and may therefore capitalise better on a good NFP reading. The S&P 500 (FXCM: SPX500) has a short-term trend which is bullish above yesterdays’ low of 1871, and may reach 1939 and then 2000.

A Bloomberg News poll projects an NFP outcome of 190k from 295k, and for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5%.

DAX 30 | FXCM: GER30