The US dollar remains firm against most of the major currencies to start what promises to be a critical week for investors.  There are two main considerations.The first is the last minute position adjustments ahead the key events that begin with the IMF’s SDR decision later today, running through the start-of the month data (especially PMIs), central bank meetings in Australia, Canada, and then the big one, the ECB. The US monthly jobs report and the OPEC meeting cap the weeks. The second consideration is month-end plays, where fund managers adjust positions and hedges. 

There were two important developments over the weekend to note. The EU and Turkey struck a deal on the refugee problem.In essence in exchange for financial resources to help Turkey cope with the estimated 2.5 mln refugees and a vague promise to restart EU ascension talks, Turkey has agreed to grant Syrian refugees working visas and take back some refugees that already traveled to the EU. The 3 bln euros Turkey is to receive was referred to as an “initial” payment, suggesting it will receive more financial assistance over time. 

The other development was the France made an important concession on the climate deal being negotiated in Paris. France agreed to allow the agreement to be downgraded from treaty-status.This is key because it will allow Obama to minimize Congressional approval.The Senate needs to ratify treaties.While the accord itself appears to be legally binding, the precise emissions reduction targets are not. The softening of France position may help Hollande secure concessions or a better atmosphere to press for concessions in its attempt to build a “coalition of the willing” post-October 31. 

Today’s news stream is fairly light so far. A few items stand out.Japan reported better than improvement in October industrial production and retail sales. Industrial output rose 1.4% in October after a 1.1% rise in September.The consensus called for a somewhat larger increase (1.8%). It has not strung two consecutive monthly increases since last December and January and snaps a two-month decline. It is the strongest reading since June.Japan also reported that retail sales in October jumped 1.1% compared with expectations for a 0.3% rise. It is the biggest rise since July and suggests some mitigating factors to last week’s report that overall household spending had fallen sharply.