In the wake of the Fed’s Wednesday flip-flop, I’m sitting here looking at my screens.

The dollar, Euro, Yen, US Treasury bonds, commodities, gold, silver, and oil all say interest rates are RISING on June 17.

Stocks are saying they’re FALLING.

The million-dollar question is: Who’s lying?

My bet is that it’s stocks that are telling the porky pies.

Here is the tell. The Federal Reserve April Open Market Committee minutes said that a rate rise was on the table if the economic data justify it.

The problem is that having shown their cards for an imminent rate rise, the global market assumption will be that a rate rise in four weeks is a sure thing.

This pretty much screams at you how all asset classes will trade for the next month.

The US dollar (UUP), lured on by the prospect of an expanding yield advantage over the rest of the world, will continue to appreciate. The Euro (FXE), Yen (FXY), US Treasury bonds (TLT), commodities, gold, silver, and oil (USO) will fall.

It’s that simple.

I have to tell you that having traded stocks for a half century, I learned long ago that stocks are congenital liars. So this is not a new thing.

Look no further than the latest batch of data releases. Even though the S&P 500 (SPY) is just short of an all time high, US equity mutual funds have shown net outflows of nearly $20 billion.

It is corporate buy backs and mergers and acquisitions that are levitating the indexes up here. Take those away, and there is nothing but air supporting prices up here.

Think of it as a Wiley Coyote moment.

That is why I sold short the market once again on Friday, specifically through purchasing the S&P 500 SPDR’s (SPY) June, 2016 $210-$215 in-the-money vertical bear put spread at $4.34. This represents a tactical layering on top of my existing short positions.

To lose money, the S&P 500 has to trade at or above the $210 level at the June 17 expiration in 20 trading days.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email