After the final week of August, our computer models identified the potential formation of an intermediate-term low in the stock market. After consolidating last week, the S&P 500 index has moved up to a new long-term high this week, indicating that the predicted intermediate-term low is likely in place. A weekly close above 2,477 on Friday would generate an intermediate-term cycle low signal, confirming that a new cycle is in progress.

With respect to technical analysis, the weekly chart is bullish overall, strong favoring a continuation of the uptrend from early 2016.

The formation of the latest intermediate-term low well above the previous low in April followed by a strong advance up to new highs would re-confirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains in September and October. Therefore, it will be important to monitor market behavior closely for the rest of the week.