For those that have been following us for some time, you may remember that, even before we bottomed, I have been looking for a 5 wave rally off the lows in the metals complex to take us to the 21-23 region in the GDX, the 122-125 region in the GLD and the 19-21 region in silver.As of Friday, we have reached our minimum targets in the GDX and GLD, but silver has seriously lagged.

As an analyst, my preference is always for the market to provide clear indications within its wave structure. And, during an impulsive structure, we do get those indications more often than not. In fact, our Fibonacci Pinball framework for Elliott Wave analysis provides us with very accurate guidance and indications within an impulsive structure a significant majority of the time. However, there are times when the market does not provide complete clarity, and that is what we are seeing at the highs in GDX and GLD. 

The main reason it seems a bit clouded within the micro structure is that the structures are overlapping, whereas standard impulsive structures do not overlap. And, when we see overlapping structures within a larger impulsive structure, it suggests either a diagonal, or a corrective wave.

So, even though we have reached the minimal targets I set before we even bottomed for a first wave off the lows, the overlapping structure suggests that it may be completing as an ending diagonal in the GDX and GLD, but we may still see one more push higher towards the upper end of our wave I ideal target region. 

But, silver still has lagged significantly, and has not even struck my lowered target for the top of a wave I in the 17 region. This leaves me open to the greater potential that silver may see a lower low, with greater probability than that which I attribute to GDX or GLD at this point in time. But, until we see a break down below 14.65, silver can still attempt to rally to at least the 16.50 region to complete a 5 wave structure off the last lows.A break down below 14.65 opens the door down to lower lows.