Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

  • The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates and a barometer for worldwide commodity demand, recently fell to its lowest level since 1985. This index clearly portrays the dramatic decrease in global trade and forebodes a worldwide recession.
  •  

    2. Further validating this significant slowdown in global growth is the CRB index, which measures nineteen commodities. After a modest recovery in 2011, it has now dropped below the 2009 level—which was the nadir of the Great Recession.

     

    3. Nominal GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015 was just 2.7%. The problem is Ms. Yellen wants to begin raising rates at a time when nominal GDP is signaling deflation and recession. The last time the Fed began a rate hike cycle was in the second quarter of 2004. Back then nominal GDP was a robust 6.6%. Furthermore, the last several times the Fed began to raise interest rates nominal GDP ranged between 5%-7%.

    4. The Total Business Inventories to Sales Ratio shows an ominous overhang: sales are declining as inventories are increasing. This has been the hallmark of every previous recession.

     

    5. The Treasury Yield curve, which measures the spread between 2 and 10 Year Notes, is narrowing. Recently, the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond saw its yield falling to a three-week low, while the yield on the Two-year note pushed up to a five-year high. This is happening because the short end of the curve is anticipating the Fed’s December hike, while the long end is concerned about slow growth and deflation.

    Banks, which borrow on the short end of the curve and lend on the long end, are less incentivized to make loans when this spread narrows. This chokes off money supply growth and causes a recession.

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email