ECB Policy Press Conference

I was watching a little of the ECB policy press conference this morning and there were a lot of thoughts that came out of that event which I may write about at a later date. However after the ultra-dovish ECB decision to signal to financial markets that they are going to add more stimulus in December with more bond buying in order to weaken the Euro currency, the US Dollar is back up to the 96.30 area on the DX, and financial markets haven`t really thought about the implications of this move by the US Dollar.

Believe it or not: The Fed actually wants to raise rates now just to save face!

Reading between the lines the Fed wants to raise rates in December to get back the ounce of credibility they once had as they have reiterated their intention of raising rates this year, and with the financial market once again ‘healed’ they are going to sneak in a 25 basis point rate hike, (maybe a lame 10 basis point rate hike if they completely wimp out on the rate hike) just to keep their original word of raising rates in 2015.

Thanks A lot ECB, You just made the Fed`s job twice as hard

The problem is with the ECB slamming the Euro trying to purposefully weaken the currency the US Dollar is already back to levels that were causing emerging markets to freak out, and the Fed to lose their nerve to raise rates in September which they had done a good job building in market expectations for a rate hike.

The market sold off for the first time on a dovish Federal Reserve Meeting, and Fed members took notice of that and immediately tried to reassure markets that they were still committed to raising rates in 2015. I actually think the Federal Reserve is going to try and sneak in a rate hike, and this is a mistake right now given what the ECB is going to do in December at its policy meeting with regard to adding even more stimulus.

Two Wrongs Cancel each other out right?

The Fed is going to ‘rectify their wrong’ of the last meeting and raise rates and lose twice with regard to disappointing market expectations, and the US Dollar Index will jump back above 98, and I expect a sizable market selloff as the Dollar continues to strengthen as the Forex markets get hit with a double whammy of a Dovish ECB Meeting and a Hawkish Federal Reserve Meeting this December. And given year end positioning the Federal Reserve couldn`t pick a worse time to raise rates. Hopefully they will just make another stupid excuse, and avoid raising rates – the lesser of the two evils. But given they have become a complete joke with their forecasts regarding hiking rates, saving face is probably more important for them right now. Therefore, Wall Street and financial markets are probably going to get screwed on this one, and end up taking one for the team!