Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
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Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of April 24
April 24
Chicago Fed National Economy Activity – March
0.4
0.34
0.3
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
18
16.9
15.0
April 25
FHFA House Price Index – February
0.5%
0.0
0.4
S&P Case/Shiller Index – February
Twenty City M/M
0.1%
0.2
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.8
0.9
0.6
Twenty City Y/Y
5.8
5.7%
5.8
PMI Services Flash Index
53.6
52.8
New Home Sales – March
580K
592
584K
Consumer Confidence
124.0
125.6
123.6
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
16.0
22.0
16.0
April 27
Initial Unemployment Claims
247K
244
243
Durable Goods Sales – March
0.8%
1.8
1.1
International Trade in Goods – February
-$65.8B
64.8
-65.3
Pending Home Sales Index – March
111.5
112.3
112
Kansas City Manufacturing Index
16
20
April 28
GDP – Q1 (a)
1.3%
2.1
1.1
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
2.1
2.1
2.1
Employment Cost Index – Q4
0.5%
0.5
0.6
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y
2.1
2.2
Chicago PMI
57.0
57.7
56.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)
98.2
98.0
98.0
Week of May 1
May 1
Personal Income – March
0.3%
0.4
Personal Spending
0.2
0.1
ISM (Mfg) – April
56.6
57.2
ISM Prices
70.5
Construction Spending – March
0.5%
0.8
May 2
Auto Sales* – April
17.05M
16.56
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
May 3
ADP Employment Report – April
190K
263
PMI Services Index
52.5
ISM Services – April
55.8
55.2
FMOC Announcement
0.875%
0.875
May 4
International Trade – March
-$45.0B
-43.5
Productivity – Q1 (p)
0.0%
1.3
Unit Labor Costs
2.5
1.7
May 5
Nonfarm Payrolls – April
195K
98
Private
190
89
Manufacturing
10
11
Unemployment
4.5%
4.5
Average Workweek
34.4HR
34.3
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.2
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
Consumer Credit – March
$16.5B
15.2
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