Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 11

December 11

JOLTS-October

6.093

6.093

6.090

December 12

Producer Price Index – November

0.3%

0.4

0.3

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget – November

-$130.0B

-63.2

December 13

Consumer Price Index – November

0.4%

0.1

0.4

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

FMOC

1.375%

1.125

1.375

December 14

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

236

240

Retail Sales – October

0.5%

0.2

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

0.1

0.6

Export Prices – November

0.3%

0.0

0.2

Import Prices

0.8

0.2

0.7

PMI Services Flash Index

54.8

54.5(f)

55.0

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.0

53.9(f)

54.0

Business Inventories – October

-0.1%

0.0

-0.1

December 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.2

18.4

Industrial Production – November

0.3%

0.9

0.3

Capacity Utilization

77.2

77.0

77.2

Manufacturing

0.3

1.3

0.3

Week of December 18

December 18

NAHB Index

70

70

70

December 19

Housing Starts – November

1.230M

1.290

1.230

Building Permits

1.260

1.297

1.263

Current Account – Q3

-$117.6B

-121.3

December 20

Existing Home Sales – November

5.480M

5.480

5.520

December 21

GDP – Q3 (f)

3.2%

3.3

3.3

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

2.1

2.1

Initial Unemployment Claims

Philadelphia Fed Survey

21.5

22.7

21.5

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – November

0.40

0.65

FHFA Housing Price Index – Oct

0.4%

0.3

Leading Indicators – Nobember

0.2%

1.2

0.3

December 22

Durable Goods Orders – November

2.0%

-0.8

1.50

Personal Income – November

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.4

0.3

0.3

New Home Sales – November

640K

685

649