Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 1

       

October 1

       

ISM (Mfg) – Sept

59.8

61.3

59.9

 

Construction Spending – August

0.5%

0.1

0.5

           

October 2

       

Auto Sales* – September

16.90M

16.72

16.78

 

Car Sales

5.2

5.14

   

Truck Sales

11.7

11.58

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

October 3

       

ADP Employment Report – September

195K

163

177

 

ISM Services – September

58.0

58.5

58.0

           

October 4

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

214

210

           

Factory Orders – August

2.4%

-0.8

2.0

 

Durable Goods Orders

4.5

-1.7

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.2

             

October 5

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – September

195K

201

180

 

Private

190

204

171

 

Manufacturing

10

-3

10

 

Unemployment

3.9%

3.9

3.8

 

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

0.3

           

International Trade – August

-$54.0B

-50.1

-53.6

 

Consumer Credit – August

$15.5B

16.6

15.0

           

Week of October 8

       

October 9

       

October 10

       

Producer Price Index – September

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

 

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.1

             

Wholesale Inventories – August

0.8

0.8

0.6

           

October 11

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

                 

Consumer Price Index – September

0.20%

0.2

0.2

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

           

Treasury Budget – September

$93.5B

-214.1

             

October 12

       

Export Prices – September

-0.1%

-0.1

0.2

 

Import Prices

0.1

-0.1

0.1

           

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – October (p)

99.0

100.1

99.0