Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 23
October 23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-0.10%
-0.31
-0.10
October 24
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
53.3
53.1
53.4
PMI Services Flash Index
55.1
55.3
55.2
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
21
19
20
October 25
Durable Goods Sales – September
1.0%
2.0
1.0
FHFA House Price Index – August
0.3
0.2
0.4
New Home Sales – September
550K
560
555
October 26
Initial Unemployment Claims
240K
222
235
International Trade in Goods
-$63.9B
-62.9
-64.0
Pending Home Sale Index – September
107.0
106.3
106.8
October 27
GDP – Q3 (a)
2.6%
3.1
2.5
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
1.8
1.0
1.8
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – October (r)
101.1
101.1
101.1
Week of October 30
October 30
Personal Income – September
0.4%
0.2
Personal Spending
0.9
0.1
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
21.3
21.3
October 31
Employment Cost Index – Q3
0.6%
0.5
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y
2.4
2.4
S&P Case/Shiller Index – August
Twenty City M/M
0.6%
0.7
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.2
0.3
Twenty City Y/Y
6.0
5.8
Chicago PMI
59.8
65.2
Consumer Confidence
120.5
119.8
November 1
Auto Sales* – September
17.47K
18.57
Car Sales
6.31
6.81
Truck Sales
11.16
11.76
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
ISM (Mfg) – October
59.5
60.8
Construction Spending – September
0.5
FMOC
1.125%
1.125
November 3
Nonfarm Payrolls – October
350K
-33
Private
340
-40
Unemployment
4.4%
4.2
Average Workweek
34.4HR
34.4
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.5
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
International Trade – September
-$43.4B
-42.4
PMI Services Index
59.8
ISM Services – October
58.8
59.8
Factory Orders – September
0.70%
1.2
Durable Goods Orders
1.0
2.0
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.3
0.4
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