Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of March 6

       

March 6

       

Factory Orders – January

1.2%

1.3

1.1

 

Durable Goods Orders

1.8

-0.5

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

3.1

             

March 7

       

International Trade – January

-$48.5B

-44.3

-48.5

 

Consumer Credit – January

$19.B

14.2

18.3

           

March 8

       

ADP Employment Report – February

185K

246K

183

           

Productivity – Q(4) – revised

1.4%

1.3

1.4

 

Unit Labor Cost

1.6

1.7

1.6

           

Wholesale Inventories – January

0.0%

0.9

-0.1

           

March 9

       

Initial Jobless Claims

240K

223

238

           

Export Prices – February

0.0%

0.1

0.2

 

Import Prices

0.1

0.4

0.2

           

March 10

                 

Nonfarm Payrolls – February

185K

227

195

 

Private

190

237

190

 

Core Private*

       

Unemployment

4.7%

4.8

4.7

 

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.2

0.3

           

Treasury Budget – February

-$193.0B

51.3

-181.5

           

Week of March 13

       

March 14

       

Producer Price Index – February

0.1%

0.4

   

PPI Core

0.2

0.2

             

March 15

       

Consumer Price Index – February

0.1%

0.6

   

CPI Core

0.2

0.3

             

Retail Sales – February

0.2%

0.4

   

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.2

0.8

             

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

16

18.7

   

Business Inventories – January

0.3%

0.3

   

NAHB Index – March

66

65

   

FMOC

0.625%

0.625

             

March 16

       

Housing Starts – February

1.260M

1.246

   

Building Permits

1.280

1.285

             

Philadelphia Fed Survey

28.0

43.3

             

March 17

       

Industrial Production – February

0.3%

-0.3

   

Capacity Utilization

75.6

75.4

             

Leading Indicators – February

0.2%

0.6

   

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – March (p)

96.8

96.3