Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 12

       

December 12

       

Treasury Budget – November

-$125.0B

-44.2

-135.0

           

December 13

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

96.5

94.9

96.5

           

Export Prices –  November

-0.2%

0.2

0.0

 

Import Prices

-0.4

0.5

-0.4

           

December 14

       

Producer Price Index – November

0.1%

0.0

0.2

           

Retail Sales – November

0.5%

0.8

0.4

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.8

0.3

           

Industrial Production – November

-0.1%

0.0

-0.2

 

Manufacturing

-0.1

0.2

-0.1

 

Capacity Utilization

75.1

75.3

75.0

           

Business Inventories – October

-0.1%

0.1

0.0

 

FMOC

0.625%

0.325

0.625

           

December 15

       

Consumer Price Index – November

0.1%

0.4

0.2

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

           

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

258

255

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

9.5

7.8

10.0

 

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

3.0

1.5

3.0

 

Current Account – Q3

-$112.0B

-119.9

-111.6

 

NAHB Index

63

63

63.00

           

December 16

       

Housing Starts – November

1.125M

1.323

1.230

 

Building Permits

1.130

1.229

1.240

           

Week of December 19

       

December 19

       

PMI Services Flash Index

54.0

54.6

             

December 21

       

Existing Home Sales – November

5.500M

5.6

5.570

           

December 22

       

Durable Goods Orders – November

-3.3%

4.6

-3.1

           

GDP – Q3 (f)

3.3%

3.2

3.3

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.4

1.4

             

Personal Income – November

0.3%

0.6

0.3

 

Personal Spending

0.5

0.3

0.4

           

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – November

54.2

57.6

   

FHFA Housing Price Index  – Oct

0.5%

0.6

   

Leading Indicators – Nobember

0.2

0.1

             

December 23

       

New Home Sales – November

580K

563

570

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – December (r)

98.0

98.0