Trading opportunities for the currency pair: The price is trading around the upper boundaries of the A-A and C-C channels. On the monthly timeframe, there’s a risk of falling to 1.25, but the euro is expected to strengthen significantly from September onwards. In connection with this, the range from 1.1475 to 1.1595 will be used for selling euros, with targets of 1.12 and 1.0925. If, from September, the price continues to trade above 1.1290, it would be wise to close all short positions. In such a case, buyers will push the price to 1.25 to the upper boundary of the D-D channel. If we get a breakout of the C-C channel in July, it’s worth changing our target from 1.25 to 1.27.

Background

The previous idea on the EUR/USD pair was published on the 13th of March, 2016. At the time of publication, the euro was trading against the dollar at 1.0670. After February’s payrolls (from 10/03/17), the price came out of the 1.0494 – 1.0626 range. I was expecting growth to 1.0780 after a breakout of 1.0715 level. With no rebound from 1.0780 and a breakout of the 1.0829 resistance, I was expecting the rate to rise to 1.1021 by the 10th of April. This worked out by way of a deep correction from 1.0906 to 1.0569. The price reached the TR1 line on the 4th of May, hitting 1.1021 on the 8th of May.

Current situation

On Friday, the 7th of July, the euro/dollar pair closed down. There was a lot of activity on the market as the nonfarm payrolls report was released. The rate first reacted with a 20-pip drop to 1.1384, followed by a 57-pip surge to 1.1440. These sharp fluctuations lasted for about 5 minutes. Once market volatility had subsided, the euro hit its session low within 30 minutes.

In June, the US created 222,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector after a forecast of 170,000. The figure for April was revised from 174,000 to 207,000 and for May from 138,000 to 152,000. The aggregate revision for the two months comes to +47,000.