Are markets just a bit more cautious within the cautious optimism about the French elections? EUR/USD dipped under 1.07 as the week comes to an end.

This is close to 100 pips below the high levels seen early in the week and a few dozens pips below levels seen earlier in the day.

The last daily poll from IFOP shows that Macron is at 24.5% against Le Pen’s 22.5%. Fillon is at 19.5% and Melenchon at 18.5%. For the nightmare scenario of Le Pen vs. Melenchon, a significant shift is needed, beyond the margins of error.

However, many are still undecided. All the four scenarios for the elections and EUR/USD are in play.  

And, another poll by BVA is much tighter. It puts Macron at 23%, the same score as Le Pen. Melenchon is third with 19.5% and Fillon at 19%. Here, the run off of extremes already looks more feasible.

The final Opinionway poll published earlier showed a slight uptick for center-right candidate Fillon with 19% over extreme left Melenchon with 18%. The picture at the top remains centrist Macron with 23% and extreme right Le Pen with 22%. Fillon also improved his odds in a hypothetical run-off against Le Pen: 59% to 41%.

Publishing opinion polls is forbidden over the weekend that includes the vote on Sunday. There will undoubtedly be private polls. Leaks and rumors are to be expected, but markets will remain closed.