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Trading on the euro on Thursday closed up. After Draghi’s press conference, the euro restored to 1.0615. The head of the ECB gave the impression that the regulator may not need to provide any further stimulus for the revitalisation of the European economy.

The ECB left its monetary policy unchanged and maintained its monthly net purchases in public and private sector securities at 80 billion EUR until the end of March. From April to December 2017, this figure will amount to 60 billion EUR a month on average. The ECB also upgraded its GDP and inflation forecasts for the Eurozone in 2017 and 2018.

Market expectations:

Today, traders’ attention will be directed towards America’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). A positive report could increase expectations of a rate hike by the Fed on the 15th of March.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch, as of the 9th of March, the probability of a rate hike this month is still 90.8%. For May, this probability has risen from 91.4% to 91.8% and for June from 95.8% to 95.9%.

Before the report is released, some growth to around 1.0610 is likely. As we get closer to the report’s release, it is expected that the price will stabilise around the 1.0599 mark. We also shouldn’t rule out a rise in US bond yields. On Thursday, US 10Y bond yields grew to 2.613% (up 2.07% from 09/03/17). In Asia, bond yields rose by 0.64% to 2.615%.

Day’s news:

  • 10:00 Germany: trade balance (Jan);
  • 12:30 UK: industrial production (Jan), manufacturing production (Jan), consumer inflation expectations, trade balance (Jan);
  • 16:30 Canada: net change in employment (Feb), unemployment rate (Feb); USA: average hourly earnings (Feb), unemployment rate (Feb), nonfarm payrolls (Feb);
  • 18:00 UK: NIESR GDP estimate (Dec-Feb);
  • 22:00 USA: monthly budget statement (Feb);

     

    • EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

    Intraday forecast: low; n/a, high: n/a, close: n/a.

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