The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture – October 29

Last week, I saw the best possible trades for the coming week as long USD/JPY, short NZD/USD, and long of the S&P 500 Index in U.S. Dollars. The overall result was positive, as the USD/JPY rose by 0.11%, the NZD/USD fell by 1.19%, and the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.13%, producing an average win of 0.48%.

The Forex market over the past week has continued in favor of the U.S. Dollar again, and may now have invalidated the long-term bearish trend in the greenback. The news was dominated by better than expected U.S. advance GDP data, although the U.S. Dollar fell in the hours after the release.

The news agenda this week is almost certainly going to be dominated by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data due Friday, as well as central bank input from the Bank of Japan.

The American stock market is still making new all-time highs which is always a bullish sign, despite the low volatility.

Following the current picture, I see the highest probability trades this week as long of the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc and the Euro, and long of the S&P 500 in U.S. Dollar terms. Apart from the stock market, there are few clear strong trends in the market now.

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

Sentiment is currently more bullish on the U.S. Dollar and stocks following a more positive outlook on the U.S. economy as GDP data looks to be stronger than expected. As there are no major U.S. releases scheduled until Wednesday, this mood is likely to continue until that day at least. President Trump will during the week name the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, and it might not be the incumbent Janet Yellen, so the greenback is also likely to be affected by this.