We contend that the market is poised for a strong finish this year (some of which we have seen already thus far in the beginning stages of the 4th quarter) following a volatile finish to the 3rd quarter. There is even some historical precedent for such strong calendar year finishes, regardless of the performance of the stock market during the month of September of the 3rd quarter overall. According to a MFS “By the Numbers” piece on September 8, 2015, over the course of the last 25 years, the S&P 500 index has gained more on a total return basis during the 4th quarter; which includes the months of October, November and December, of the year than the index has gained during the other 3 quarters – combined. Since 1990, the final 3 months of the year have gained +253.1% on a total return basis versus a gain of +181.3% for the first 9 months of the year. We believe that this trend will continue during the fourth quarter of 2015.

2015

With this in mind, we suggest the following portfolio management ideas for careful and thoughtful consideration for the remainder of 2015 remembering that any investment portfolio should be custom tailored to an investor’s specific financial goals, income needs, investment timeframe and tolerance for risk.

• Maintain current overweight to the U.S. but continue to diversify across capitalizations

While we contend that international stocks, particularly within Europe and also including certain emerging markets, are an attractive asset class for the intermediate-longer term, we expect better risk adjusted, relative performance potential over the near term in certain U.S. equity asset classes and sectors with a strong finish, and potential “Santa Claus” rally, to close out the year. However, investors would be wise to diversify across the U.S. mid-cap and the U.S. small cap asset classes as well as opposed to just concentrating on the U.S. large cap asset class.

• Consider satellite allocations for diversification and growth potential

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