Chevy Bolt vs. Tesla Model 3

Elon Musk recently announced the Tesla Model 3, a sub-$40k, 5-seat plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) with a ~200-mile range that is well positioned to change the world. It should be available sometime in late 2017. Don’t count on the ship date; Tesla has never shipped any product when promised. That said, as of this writing, the company received over 325,000 deposits ($1,000 each). In fact, there were lines outside many Tesla (TSLA) dealerships evoking images of fanboys lining up to preorder iPhones.

Sometime in late 2016 (a year earlier than Tesla is scheduled to launch the Model 3), GM (GM) is going to launch the Chevy Bolt, a sub-$40k, 5-seat PEV with a ~200-mile range that is also well positioned to change the world. As of this writing, GM has received approximately zero deposits to reserve the Bolt. And there’s a reason.

If Tesla = Apple, GM = Who?

Continuing the smartphone metaphor, GM may equal Samsung or HTC or any Android handset maker, but the answer to this question is not important. That people are asking questions such as, “Is the Chevy Bolt a Tesla killer?” positions Tesla as a company that has transcended the metrics of its industrial-age competitors. Tesla is playing by rules that simply don’t apply to the auto industry writ large, and it and other tech startups such as Google and Apple (car division) and LeEco’s Faraday Future are all going to benefit from Tesla’s tech roots. 

Tesla Is a Tech Company Having a Go at Cars; GM Is an Automaker Having a Go at Tech

The numbers tell the story. GM is a venerable automotive company founded in 1908. It has a market cap of ~$44.5 billion. Tesla is a tech startup founded in 2003. It has a market cap of ~$32 billion. Clearly, Wall Street values tech startups and venerable automotive companies differently. But this is a crazy metric. Tesla has never made a deadline or shown a profit. It has delivered under 100,000 vehicles. According to an auto industry veteran I spoke with, GM has over 150 million cars and trucks on the road and has produced over 500 million vehicles over its 108-year life. People who know the auto industry have no idea why Tesla is valued the way it is. This lack of understanding adds color and context to the tale of two automakers. Tesla is valued partly on its promise, its business model, its culture and its visionary leadership. GM is too, but Wall Street knows much, much more about GM’s capabilities than it knows about Tesla’s. 

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