There are ostensibly three main political forces in Italy. The Five Star Movement is seen as a populist party who’s agenda appears unique blend of right/left issues. From the March elections, it emerged as the single biggest force. The center-right alliance has two main components, the Northern League, a nationalist party and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. The Northern League has surpassed Forza Italia. The center-left is split between a wing led by former Prime Minister Renzi, who quit as head of the PD but insists on not joining a coalition with the Five Star Movement or the Northern League.  

A new SWG poll published yesterday confirms the results of a couple local elections held since the national contest in which the Northern League performed particularly well. The poll has the Northern League’s support up to 24.4% from 17.4% in the March election. However, support for the center-right coalition edged up to 38.5% from 37.1%, which suggests the Northern League is drawing support from Forza Italia. Support for the center-left is steady a little below 20%.  

Mattarella may be too much in a hurry to seek the technocrat or caretaker government. Recall it took Germany six months to hammer out a coalition after last September’s elections. Or consider Spain that had elections in 2015 and 2016 before finally returning Rajoy to power. A technocrat government would mean that Berlusconi was the last elected Prime Minister, and he was forced out in 2011. Northern League head Salvini asked Mattarella for authorization to see if he could put together a government. After consulting with the various party leaders, Mattarella concluded the chances for success were minor.  

With little hope of an agreement, Mattarella wants a to name a government whose mission would be to pass the budget and prepare for elections. A local paper suggested several potential candidates, including Elisabetta Belloni, secretary-general in the Foreign Minister. Carlo Cottarelli, previously an executive director at the IMF, and was also in charge of the Italian government’s spending review, and Marta Cartabia, deputy head of the Constitutional Court.