by Doug Short and Steven Hansen

According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4 % – a continuing growth of inflation beginning in October 2015. The year-over-year core inflation (excludes energy and food) rate grew 0.1% to 2.2 %, and remains slightly above the target set by the Federal Reserve.

The market expected (from Bloomberg):

As a generalization – inflation accelerates as the economy heats up, while inflation rate falling could be an indicator that the economy is cooling. However, inflation does not correlate well to the economy – and cannot be used as a economic indicator.

The major influence on the CPI was energy prices.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

An increase in the index for all items less food and energy offset a decline in the energy index to lead to the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. The energy index fell 2.8 percent as all of its major component indexes declined. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in January. The increase was broad-based, with most of the major components rising, but increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were the largest contributors.

The food index was unchanged in January. The index for food away from home increased, but the food at home index declined for the third consecutive month, as five of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased.

The all items index rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the 0.7-percent 12-month increase for the period ending December. The energy index fell 6.5 percent over the past year; this was its smallest 12-month decrease since November 2014. The food index rose 0.8 percent over the last 12 months, with the food at home index declining 0.5 percent. The index for all items less food and energy increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months, a figure that has been gradually rising over the last several months.