The headlines say wholesale sales were down month-over-month with inventory levels up remaining at levels associated with recessions. Our analysis shows significant improvement of the 3 month averages and our monthly analysis shows significant acceleration..

Analyst Opinion of this month’s Wholesale Sales

The headlines said this sector declined this month. The growth this month was in durables with non-duirables decelerating. Overally, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story – and they improved this month. There is an obvious growth trendline in wholesale – and the data set is now showing normal growth for times of economic expansion.

Inventories remain at elevated levels.

To add to the confusion, year-over-year employment changes and sales growth do not match.

Note that Econintersect analysis is based on the change from one year ago. Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 8.1 % month-over-month.
  • unadjusted sales year-over-year growth is up 11.8 % year-over-year (it was +6.7 % last month)
  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 11.5 % year-over-year
  • the 3 month rolling average of unadjusted sales was 4.3 % month-over-month, and up 7.4 % year-over-year.

  • unadjusted inventories grew 2.4 % year-over-year (down 0.3 % month-over-month), unadjusted inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.40 which historically is well above recessionary levels.

    • US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:

  • sales down 0.1 % month-over-month, up 8.4 % (last month was originally reported up 6.8 %) year-over-year
  • inventories down 0.2 % month-over-month, inventory-to-sales ratios were 1.37 one year ago – and are now 1.29.
  • Expectations for inventory growth from Bloomberg / Econoday were between ————- (consensus +———— %) [no expectations this month] vs. the actual at -0.2 %

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