July 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Marginally Ticks Up

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also, ECRI released their coincident and lagging indices.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indices are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are showing growth but the general trends are in opposite directions. They both are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Rises

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 144.8 from 143.9, as its growth rate ticked up from 2.4% to 2.6%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

– read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji’s recent article on Bloomberg.

– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Reuters.

– ECRI’s presentation ‘Turning Points: The Long and Short of It’ at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly forward indicator using different pulse points that ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows the rate of economic growth insignificantly declined.