from the Congressional Budget Office

The federal budget deficit was $682 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates, $116 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were 1 percent and 4 percent higher, respectively, than in the same period in fiscal year 2017.

As was the case last year, this year’s outlays were affected by shifts in the timing of certain payments that otherwise would have been due on a weekend. If not for those shifts, outlays and the deficit through July would have been larger, by roughly $40 billion, both this year and last year—but the year-to-year changes would not have been very different.

Projected Outcomes for 2018

CBO expects that the deficit, receipts, and outlays for fiscal year 2018 will be largely consistent with amounts in its adjusted April baseline, which were reported in An Analysis of the President’s 2019 Budget in May 2018. At that time, CBO projected a deficit of $793 billion, outlays of $4,131 billion, and receipts of $3,339 billion.

Payments of individual income taxes received in April, mainly for 2017 taxes, were larger than CBO expected, whereas corporate income tax receipts have been smaller than anticipated. Although some provisions of last year’s major tax legislation (Public Law 115-97) affect receipts, the timing of those effects is highly uncertain. The amount collected in recent months might not indicate the amount that individuals or businesses ultimately will pay for tax year 2018.

In keeping with historical patterns, and accounting for shifts in the timing of certain payments, outlays so far are consistent with CBO’s May 2018 projection: Through the first 10 months of the fiscal year, federal spending totals about ten-twelfths of the amount that CBO projected for 2018.

Total Receipts: Up by 1 Percent in the First 10 Months of Fiscal Year 2018

Receipts totaled $2,766 billion during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates—$26 billion more than the amount received during the same period last year. The net increase resulted from changes in collections from the following sources, according to CBO’s estimates: