Quotable

What’s past, and what’s to come is strewed with husk.  And formless ruin of oblivion – William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida

Commentary & Analysis

BEIJING— China’s exports fell in October for the fourth consecutive month, as a once-powerful engine of the country’s growth continued to sputter in the face of weak global demand.

The world’s appetite for China’s goods—the world’s second-largest economy accounts for nearly one-fifth of global factory exports — has been lower than expected this year. Meanwhile, weak domestic demand continues to reduce imports. Both are contributing to China’s growth slowdown.

“The mix of the data is again not encouraging,” said Commerzbank economist Zhou Hou. “Trade momentum is unlikely to turn around in the near term.”

Sunday’s results suggest the export scene is worsening. China’s General Administration of Customs said October exports fell 6.9% year-over-year in dollar terms, after a drop of 3.7% in September. The October figure was worse than the median 4.1% decline forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Imports in October fell by a sharper-than-expected 18.8% from a year earlier, following a 20.4% decline in September. China’s trade surplus widened in October to $61.64 billion from $60.3 billion in September.

China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday in a report that exports are likely to see little increase in 2015, while imports will likely report a “relatively big” decline as falling commodity prices continue to weigh on trade flows.

Well, last Friday’s strong US jobs number (and this China export/import news) has put a big dent in our thought oil prices would rally again—targeting to $55.We did manage to sneak out of our long CAD (short USD/CAD) position with a small gain; which was partially predicated on its correlation with oil price, i.e. stronger oil and stronger Canadian dollar.