Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.6% and +0.2% on Wednesday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors remained uncertain following last week’s move down, among others. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along the level of 2,340-2,350. It is now trading around 2.5% below its March 1 all-time high of 2,400.98. Is this a new downtrend or just relatively shallow downward correction before another medium-term leg up? The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell closer to the level of 20,400, and relatively stronger technology Nasdaq Composite index got closer to 5,900 mark again. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,320-2,330, marked by previous short-term consolidation. The next support level is at 2,270-2,280. The support level is also at around 2,250. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is now at 2,350, marked by some recent local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,370-2,380, marked by the early April local highs. The resistance level is at also at around 2,400, marked by record high. We can see some short-term volatility following five-month-long rally off last year’s November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before medium-term downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index is currently trading below its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart: