OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.18%) are down -0.15% and European stocks are up +0.35% ahead of today’s widely anticipated Fed interest rate decision. The markets are pricing in a 32% chance of a Fed rate hike today according to fed fund futures, up slightly from 30% at the beginning of the week. Weakness in technology stocks is dragging the overall market lower with Oracle down -1.2% in pre-market trading after reporting Q1 revenue of $8.45 billion, below consensus of $8.53 billion. Peabody Energy, the largest U.S. coal miner, plunged 15% in pre-market trading after it authorized a reverse stock split. Emerging markets closed higher and Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.43%, Hong Kong -0.51%, China -2.10%, Taiwan +1.35%, Australia +0.94%, Singapore +0.94%, South Korea +0.21%, India closed for holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 1-week high on speculation the BOJ may need to expand stimulus to revive economic growth after Japanese trade data showed Aug imports fell more than expected.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.24%) is down -0.21%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.26%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.33%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.12%) are up +5 ticks.

The ECB lowered Greece’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to 88.9 billion euros from 89.1 billion euros and said the reduction of ceiling requested by the Bank of Greece “reflects an improvement of the liquidity situation of Greek banks, amid a reduction of uncertainty and the stabilization of private sector deposit flows.”

The Japan Aug trade balance was in deficit by -569.7 billion yen, wider than expectations of -540.0 billion yen and the largest deficit in 7 months. Aug exports rose +3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +4.3% y/y. Aug imports fell -3.1% y/y, more than expectations of -2.5% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected unch at 275,000, previous -6,000 to 275,000) and continuing claims (expected -2,000 to 2.258 million, previous +1,000 to 2.260 million), (2) Q2 current account deficit (expected -$113.5 billion, Q1 -$113.3 billion), (3) Aug housing starts (expected -3.8% to 1.160 million, Jul +0.2% to 1.206 million), (4) Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (expected -2.4 to 5.9, Aug +2.6 to 8.3), (5) the FOMC’s policy announcement after its 2-day meeting and a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen.