Jihadism has been radiating out of Pakistan for decades and causing problems for the country’s relationships with other governments. Lately, however, it’s been Pakistan itself that is suffering from its homegrown Islamism. The country was founded on a contradiction between secularism and Islamism, and though it has covered up its incoherence, it has never overcome it. The contradiction is finally catching up to the country, and things in Pakistan will get worse before they get better.

Warning Signs

Evidence that things in Pakistan are reaching their boiling point came, paradoxically, from the outside. A Nov. 22 report by a Pakistani daily said that a Chinese delegation visiting Pakistan had expressed concerns that political instability could adversely affect the tens of billions of dollars that China was investing in the South Asian nation. The report said that on Nov. 21, a joint committee on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—part of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative—approved the broad parameters of a long-term plan for the CPEC but failed to agree on development projects and financing for special economic zones. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, a Pakistani minister who serves as the country’s point man on the CPEC acknowledged that political unrest since 2014 was undermining the mega-development project.

Pakistan has grown more unstable since the United States invaded neighboring Afghanistan after 9/11. In fact, over the past decade, Pakistan has been the target of a vicious jihadist insurgency that has claimed as many as 80,000 lives. Yet the Chinese still went ahead with the CPEC in 2013. Four years later, China, usually a stalwart ally, is beginning to second guess its investment plans for Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s relations with its historical ally, the United States, have also hit an all-time low.The incoherence in Islamabad is preventing the country from working effectively with the US to address common concerns about the insurgency in Afghanistan. The top American commander in Afghanistan said Nov. 28 that he had not seen a change in Pakistani support for Afghan militants even though the administration of President Donald Trump has taken a tougher line against Islamabad. US Defense Secretary James Mattis is currently visiting the Pakistani capital, where he has said he will try “one more time” to work with Islamabad before taking “whatever steps are necessary” to address its alleged support for Afghan militants.