With non-hope-based GDP forecasts for Q1 at cycle lows, today’s wholesale inventories decline will not help. After dropping in January, and rebounding in Feb, March saw inventories drop 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.2% rise).

This is the first quarterly decline in wholesale inventories since Q1 2016 (when the world was feared to be heading into recession).

Yet another ‘hard’ data disappointment.