Politics in D.C., China, BREXIT plans, and France are in the news this morning. The good news on this first day of May is that the U.S. Government will not be at risk of shutting down (well, until the end of September, that is), as House and Senate negotiators appear to have reached a bipartisan deal on a $1.16 trillion spending bill. The vote on the bill could be held mid-week.

In other news, China’s primary gauge of factory production came in short of expectations. China’s Manufacturing PMI came in 51.2 in April, which was down from March’s 51.8 (an almost 5-year high) and below the estimates for a reading of 51.7. The services PMI also fell, coming in at a 6-month low of 55.1. (Recall that readings over 50 indicate expansion and below 50, contraction.) Next, the EU summit in Brussels ended with U.K. PM Theresa May’s expectations for post-BREXIT trade being referred to as unrealistic. And lest we forget, France’s Presidential run-off election is just 6 days away. And so far at least, markets appear to be none the worse for wear to start the week.

Now let’s move on to an objective review the key market models and indicators. The primary goal of this exercise is to remove any preconceived, subjective notions about the markets and ensure that we stay in line with what “is” really happening in the market. So, let’s get started…

The State of the Trend

We start each week with a look at the “state of the trend.” These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.

Executive Summary: