The latest US political news before roiled thin pre-weekend markets, but cooler heads and more of them are prevailing today. Trump’s fortune in the polls had bottomed prior to the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton’s emails and the national polls have narrowed.  

However, Clinton’s lead in the electoral college projections remains substantial. Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com blog puts the odds of a Clinton just below 79%, down from 86.3% a week ago and 88% two weeks ago. Predict wise, another respected site, gives Clinton 88% chance of winning, down from 90% last week and two weeks ago. 

The US dollar is better bid against most of the major currencies. The notable exception is the Canadian dollar, which underperformed before the weekend, and the Australian dollar. The RBA meets tomorrow, and there is little chance of a rate cut.The Aussie is in the middle of its two-cent range seen $0.7500-$0.7700.   

The euro was turned back from the $1.10 area. The $1.0940 is the initial retracement of the bounce that began before the latest US political developments, and then $1.1920. The 20-day moving average is near $1.1015. The euro has not closed above this moving average this month.  

Germany reported poor retail sales. The Bloomberg survey median had a 0.2% increase after a 0.4% decline in August. Instead, September retail sales fell 1.4% (Aug revised to -0.3%). It is the largest slide in two years. German retail sales are up 0.4% from a year ago.  

Separately, eurozone October CPI and Q3 GDP were in line with expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.5% after a 0.4% pace in September. The core rate was unchanged at 0.8%, suggesting the improvement came from energy. The euro area is expanded by 0.3% in Q3 and a 1.6% year-over-year rate. Both were in line with preliminary estimates, which matched Q2’s performance.