In recent months, I have been in the habit of fading rallies in Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) using Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X Shares (RUSS) for quick, short-term trades. That streak may be on the verge of ending.

Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) has been trapped by 200DMA resistance since June. The current test of resistance has come soon after a breakdown of 50DMA support.

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

As the chart shows, RSX looked like it was ready to resume its downtrend when it broke through support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) last week. THIS week, RSX turned 180 degrees and picked up enough momentum to briefly break through 200DMA resistance. Volume has picked up as well.

This rally particularly caught my attention because oil prices declined this week and even dipped below $40/barrel. I had counted on a tight correlation between RSX and oil, United States Oil Fund LP (USO) in particular. USO is of course an imperfect proxy for oil prices, but it is one of the best and most liquid options available to retail equity traders. The chart below juxtaposes RSX and USO going back to early last year. The two have danced pretty well together outside of two key areas, including the last two months (see the rectangles).

The Market Vectors Russia ETF has again begun separating from the United States Oil Fund LP.

Creating a ratio of RSX/USO reminds us that despite the long stretches of closely correlated behavior, RSX has greatly outperformed USO in 2015 overall: year-to-date, RSX is up 20.0% (despite the current downtrend from May’s peak), and USO is DOWN 36.5%.

RSX has spent most of 2015 outpacing USO. The pace has accelerated over the last 2 months or so.

Source: StockCharts.com

Given this outperformance, I am wondering whether RSX is on the verge of a rally similar to the one that started the year after it diverged from USO. One potential driver of a breakout for RSX is the beginning of more cooperation between Russia and the U.S. The security interests of the two countries may converge over terrorism despite the ongoing disputes over Ukraine. (Hat tip to someone on StockTwits who suggested this possibility). I know an independence from oil revenues will NOT be a driver anytime soon. Regardless, if RSX breaks out, I will end my fades and get on board for a potential extended rally.