It’s a long way down folks. S&P 500 earnings are already down 12% from their all-time highs. They reached these heights due to the Federal Reserve ZIRP and QE, along with the pocket protector wearing accountants at the FASB knuckling under to Bernanke and Geithner and allowing the Wall Street banks to report fake profits. Reversing hundreds of billions in loan loss reserves booked in 2009 while “earning” billions from parking money at the Fed has allowed Wall Street banks to report $700 billion of fake profits since 2010.  

The massive corporations that make up the S&P 500 have generated increasing profits by refinancing their debt at the artificially lowered rates from the Fed, raising prices, moving jobs to foreign countries, and giving their workers 2% raises. Revenue growth among the S&P 500 has been non-existent. The game is up. There are no more employees to fire. There are no more loan loss reserves to reverse. There is no more debt to refinance. QE is done. The Fed can’t lower interest rates below 0%.

Profits are falling and will continue to fall. The stock market will follow.

Chart of the Day

With Q2 earnings largely in the books (over 97% of S&P 500 firms have reported), today’s chart provides some long-term perspective on the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported S&P 500 earnings. Today’s chart illustrates the dramatic nature of the earnings plunge during the financial crisis as well as the recovery that followed — a recovery that took earnings from levels not seen since the Great Depression to a new record high. Over the past two quarters, however, S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings have declined by a significant 12% from their record highs — a significant concern going forward.