Good Monday morning and welcome back. Global markets appear to be in sigh of relief mode this morning in response to the preliminary round of the French election. Pro-growth, pro-EU, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron emerged as the early leader as both of France’s establishment parties were eliminated in the first round of voting. Macron will face far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. But with Macron taking the early lead in the polls, the hope is that stability in the EU and growth for France will become the themes of the day.

Now let’s move on to an objective review the key market models and indicators. The primary goal of this exercise is to remove any preconceived, subjective notions about the markets and ensure that we stay in line with what “is” really happening in the market. So, let’s get started…

The State of the Trend

We start each week with a look at the “state of the trend.” These indicators are designed to give us a feel for the overall health of the current short- and intermediate-term trend models.

Executive Summary:

  • The short-term Trend Model reflects the sideways range that has developed over the past month 
  • The short-term Channel Breakout System remains on a buy signal – a break below 2320 would cause the signal to reverse 
  • The intermediate-term Trend Model remains negative, albeit by a slim margin 
  • The intermediate-term Channel Breakout System is also on a buy signal and employs the same breakdown point as the s.t. system 
  • The long-term Trend Model is still solidly positive 
  • The Cycle Composite points higher for the next couple weeks 
  • The Trading Mode models confirm this to be a trendless environment at this time. As such, a “ride the range” trading approach is most appropriate for short-term traders

    • The State of Internal Momentum

    Next up are the momentum indicators, which are designed to tell us whether there is any “oomph” behind the current trend…

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