Should Investors Sell Priceline and Buy Expedia Stock

Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) has had a rough year in 2015 as the extremely strong dollar continues to decimate its growth. Priceline shares have lost 10% over the past 5 days after the company delivered healthy Q3 earnings but said gross bookings were weak. Priceline delivered Q3 Revenue of $3.1 billion, good for 9.2% Y/Y growth, beating estimates by $50 million. Meanwhile Q3 EPS of $25.35 beat estimates by $1.12. While those results were quite decent, it was Priceline’s gross bookings that undid any good: Priceline gross bookings rose just 7% Y/Y to $14.8 billion in Q3, but would have grown 22% excluding for-ex impact. Priceline said that gross bookings are expected to rise 1%-8% in Q4, but a more decent 13%-20% excluding currency impact. Compare that to Expedia’s earnings numbers:Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE), which is much less dependent on international sales (and thus less hurt by a strong dollar) than Priceline, saw bookings (exc. eLong) rise 21% Y/Y to $15.4 billion in Q3. Excluding forex, growth was 26%.

Expedia outperformed Priceline in nearly all key growth metrics as shown below:

  Revenue Growth(Y/Y) Bookings Growth(Y/Y) EBITDA Growth(Y/Y) Air Tickets Growth(Y/Y) Room Nights Growth(Y/Y) Expedia 13.5% 14% 13% 31% 36% Priceline 9.2% 6.9% 12% (1%) 22%

And this clearly reflects on the share performance of either company, with Expedia shares up 48.8% YTD vs. 15.6% YTD for Priceline.

Expedia vs. Priceline YTD Stock Returns

EXPE stock chart

Priceline stock price vs Expedia stock price chart by amigobulls.com

Huge International Exposure Wreaking Havoc On Priceline’s Growth

For a long time Expedia has usually played second fiddle to Priceline in the growth arena, and especially when it comes to profitability, thanks to Priceline’s huge international exposure. About 88% of Priceline’s revenue comes from overseas markets, mainly via Booking.com which is based in the Netherlands. The company enjoys much lower tax rates in the country, one of the reasons for its superior profitability than Expedia. Priceline also boasts leaner and more efficient operations than Expedia. Expedia’s international exposure is limited to about 43% of its revenue.

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