Fear of regulation may impede bank’s from manipulating London’s silver benchmark

Gold fixing in London at NM Rothschild and Sons began in September 1919

Simple economics tells us that markets and prices are driven by demand and supply. Unfortunately, this isn’t always the case in the silver market. However, the threat of new regulations may be putting a stop to some bullion banks from fiddling the London silver benchmark.

Silver price manipulation is always a thorny issue and one that has been taken on by academics, lawsuits, by veteran silver analyst Ted Butler and by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). As we have reported previously, allegations of silver price manipulation are far past the point of rumours, in the last couple of years bullion banks have been called to account for their behaviour. Deutsche bank even agreed to settle out of court and pay $38m, in response to a class-action lawsuit.

But it seems the rising attention (and cost) of manipulation by silver bullion banks is not the only thing that is putting a stop to a behaviour that has been evident for over a decade. Reuters reported yesterday that fear of being accused by regulators of market manipulation has resulted in participating banks being reluctant to add liquidity during the daily auction.

Banks finally fear regulation

The low volume of orders and lack of liquidity has resulted in the benchmark price failing on multiple occasions to provide a fair and accurate snapshot of what is known as the ‘spot price’. The spot price is calculated based on a much wider and faster market. Huge divergences from this spot price have resulted in unexpected gains and losses, according to Thomson Reuters data, since at least January 2016.

Traditionally, the seven banks involved in the auction ensure the benchmark stays close to the spot price by adding liquidity and buying or selling silver during the auction. However, lawsuits regarding gold and silver manipulation as well as investigations into other markets such as Libor appear to have put the banks off from their usual antics for fear of drawing the attention of regulators.