Examining the markets over the last several months, it comes as no surprise that the recovery in equities has been a bit lopsided from a capitalization perspective. Large cap dominated portfolios have nearly erased their losses stemming from the August-September correction, while more growth orientated small and mid-cap strategies have lagged. From a performance perspective, small cap stock indexes are still roughly 8-10% off their 2015 highs, allowing a lot of room to play catch-up.
This is most likely the result of the steep losses that transpired in the energy and biotech sectors, which dominate many small and mid-cap indexes. Yet while these indexes led on the downside and exhibited lack luster performance during the majority of the rally, there is some recent evidence that suggests there could be a changing of the guard.
The recent price action of broadly diversified indexes such as the iShares Russel 2000 ETF (IWM) or the Vanguard Small Cap Index ETF (VB) have uncharacteristically exhibited better performance on a day-to-day basis over the last few weeks despite the random bouts of equity volatility. In fact, over the last five trading sessions, small caps have posted performance measures of roughly +1.8% in comparison to 1.25% for the S&P 500 Index.
From a seasonal perspective, small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large cap names during the months of October through February every year for the last 15 years. This is typically the result of the abundance of bull markets that have been spawned following weak September equity returns, small and mid-cap stocks typically lead on the upside during new up-trends.
From a psychological perspective, it’s easier to put excess cash to work when equities still have a healthy buffer between current prices and broaching new highs. I would always rather purchase stocks 10% or more from their most recent highs instead of just 2-3%.Psychological relative valuations matter, despite richer fundamental P/E valuations in smaller names.
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